Population, climate change, and global
justice: A moral framework for debate
Elizabeth
Cripps
Elizabeth
Cripps is a Senior Lecturer in Political Theory at the University of Edinburgh.
She is the author of Climate Change and the Moral Agent: Individual Duties in
an Interdependent World (2013) and has published research papers on climate
change ethics, collective responsibility, justice to non-human animals,
parental duties, and population and justice.
elizabeth.cripps@ed.ac.uk
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
DOI: 10.3197/jps.2017.1.2.23
Licensing: This article is Open Access (CC BY 4.0).
How to Cite:
Cripps, E. 2016. 'Population, climate change, and global justice: A moral framework for debate '. The Journal of Population and Sustainability 1(2): 23–36.
https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2017.1.2.23
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
This paper outlines a moral
framework for the debate on global population policy. Questions of population,
climate justice and global justice are morally inseparable and failure to
address them as such has dangerous implications. Considerations of population
lend additional urgency to existing collective duties to act on global poverty
and climate change. Choice-providing procreative policies are a key part of
that. However, even were we collectively to fulfil these duties, we would face
morally hard choices over whether to introduce incentive-changing procreative
policies. Thus, there is now no possible collective course of action which is
not morally problematic.
Keywords: Population policy; climate justice;
global justice; tragic choices; hard choices; procreative rights.
Acknowledgements: This paper draws extensively on material
originally published in Global Justice: Theory,
Practice, Rhetoric (Cripps,
2016a) and the Oxford Handbook of
Environmental Ethics (Cripps,
2016b). I gratefully acknowledge the permission of Oxford University Press to
reproduce arguments from the Handbook. The
earlier articles benefited from the critical input of numerous colleagues,
including the editors of both publications. This version has benefited from
written comments from Harry Cripps, as well as discussion at the Cumberland
Lodge Colloquium on Population Ethics and with the Edinburgh Politics and
International Relations Research Group.
The
United Nations Population Division predicts that there will be 9.7bn humans by
2050 and 11.2bn by the turn of the century (UNDESA, 2015b). That’s on the
medium variant, but it may err on the low side (O’Sullivan, 2016). The IPAT
equation makes it clear that population, along with affluence and the limits of
technology, is a factor determining our collective impact on the environment
(Ehrlich and Holdren, 1972). That deleterious impact includes climate change,
which threatens human lives, health, and community (IPCC, 2014).
Given
this, it is unsurprising that increasing (though still limited) airspace is
being given to the question of limiting global population growth. The topic is
gaining some traction among some academics and campaign organisations, although
still generally eschewed by policymakers. This paper will outline a much-needed
moral framework for this debate, in two ways. Firstly, it is morally crucial
that we address the population question but equally crucial that this be done
in the right way. I will argue that considerations of global and particularly
gender justice must remain centre stage in any policy proposals. Secondly, the
paper will clarify the morally deplorable situation in which, as a generation,
we find ourselves. To avoid morally terrible policies or outcomes, we must make
morally hard choices. The global affluent must face up to their obligation to
make these choices, as well as their responsibility for bringing the situation
about.
Let
me begin with a few clarificatory remarks. Firstly, my normative starting point
is a basic view of justice: one so minimal that I hope few would deny that we
human beings owe each other this much. The basic requirement is that everyone
be given a genuine opportunity to secure central human interests such as life,
health, and some form of community. In other words, it is unjust for anyone to
be denied the opportunity for a basically decent human life. Basic global
justice demands this for everyone now living; basic intergenerational justice
requires that the opportunity be preserved for future generations. Securing the
latter requires, but is not limited to, effective action on climate change
mitigation and adaptation.
Secondly,
I will refer to morally hard options and to hard or tragic choices. A morally
hard option involves doing something against which, other things being equal,
there is a significant moral presumption. Although not morally terrible or
outrageous, it should provoke significant moral concern. The distinction might
be brought out at the individual level by the difference between breaking a
promise and killing somebody. A choice is tragic if all options are morally
terrible; it is morally hard if, although not all options are terrible, there
is none which is not at least morally hard.
Thirdly,
this paper focuses on the impact of population growth and climate change on
central human interests. I do not deny moral
significance to the interests or survival of non-humans. However, enough hard
questions are raised without extending the moral sphere in this way.
Fourthly,
I will often refer to collective policy options. These, in practice, would
almost certainly have to be implemented at state level. Moreover, as will
become clear, the case for permissible introduction of some policies will
depend on background circumstances which are often state-specific. However, the
collective challenge is ultimately a global one and is addressed here as such.
Finally,
population – or more specifically procreative – policies can be categorised as
follows. Choice-providing policies include education and
empowerment of women, and provision of family planning and reproductive health.
As will become apparent, they also include provision of basic social security
and health care to minimise infant mortality. Incentive-changing policies
are designed to influence the procreative decisions of individuals and couples
by changing their pay-offs. ‘Harder’ options within these are negative
financial incentives (fines, taxes) or modifications to the ways in which many
societies externalise the cost of child-rearing. For example, child benefit
might be cut or limited to one or two children. ‘Softer’ options include small
positive financial or economic incentives for small families, or educational
and campaigning initiatives to cultivate a social norm of small families. Directly coercive measures,
such as forced sterilisation or forced abortions, constitute abuses of central
human rights. As such, they are not considered here except as a morally
terrible alternative to be avoided.
How not to talk about
population…
It is
morally crucial to discuss population in the right way. One ‘wrong way’ is to
limit the scope of debate to population and environment or population and
climate change, ignoring considerations of global justice. Given rising
population figures in less developed countries (LDCs) and often
below-replacement birth rates in more developed countries (MDCs) (UNDESA,
2015b), there is an apparently straightforward temptation to put the onus for
action (and impose the costs of so acting) on LDCs and their citizens[1]. However, this is morally pernicious: it
is not only highly unfair but also very dangerous.
This
inference is unfair because human numbers do not bring about climate change or
other environmental damage on their own. As the IPAT equation spells out, they
do so in combination with per capita carbon footprint (or other ecological
impact) and the limitations of technology. Many areas where human numbers are
growing fastest are also those where per capita emissions are lowest (UNDESA,
2015b, WWF, 2014). To quote Stephen Gardiner: ‘The raw numbers suggest that the
climate problem would not be much affected by many more Indians, Bangladeshis,
and Africans living as they currently do’ (2011). Nor should the correlation
between high population growth and other indicators of environmental
destruction – such as plummeting biodiversity – be taken as reason to push
responsibility onto LDCs. Again, population is only part of the equation:
comparatively high biodiversity rates in more developed world countries are
also the result of MDCs ‘outsourcing’ environmentally destructive production
and waste disposal to poorer parts of the world (WWF, 2012).
Shifting
responsibility to LDCs and their citizens also has dangerous implications for
basic justice. Consider what it means to say that the global poor ‘ought’ to
have fewer children? If couples lack access to and information about family planning,
they may not have that option. Women in some traditional societies, uneducated
and subject to the will of their husbands, may be deprived of choice even if
contraception is in principle available. In some cases, a large family may be a
woman’s only route to social status. Where adult children are one’s only means
of security in old age and infant mortality is high, a large family can be
necessary to protect against destitution. Nor can the onus for action simply be
shifted to state level. Without considerable resource transfers, the poorest
states may be unable to provide the family planning, education, and social
security without which individual change would be either impossible or involve
extreme sacrifice. Moreover, international policies which incentivise states to
reduce population growth could, against the current status quo, have terrifying
human rights implications: they could incentivise coercion. Consider the
catalogue of abuses already seen in many parts of the world: forcing, bribing, intimidating
or humiliating men or women to be sterilised, pressuring women to have late
abortions, and mass-level contraceptive injections carried out by the military
(Nair et al., 2004).
The
full moral force of these observations comes when we combine them. Many in LDCs
lack female empowerment, family planning, education and basic security for old
age. These, which earlier effective action
on global justice by the global affluent might have secured,
leave many in the global poor unable to have smaller families, or to do so
without huge personal sacrifice. In addition to other per capita-resource level
problems, the resulting population growth has negative environmental impacts.
The global affluent often outsource the environmental costs of their own luxury
lifestyles to LDCs, further exacerbating these local environmental problems.
This in turn makes life tougher for the local population, pushing them still
further from the level of affluence and empowerment at which women are
genuinely free to choose to have fewer children. Given this, it would be
morally outrageous for the policy and academic elite – in which MDCs dominate –
to talk of the ‘irresponsibility’ of the global poor in having larger families.
… and why we must not ignore it
altogether
Basic
justice must stay centre stage in any debate on population. So much, I hope, is
clear. However, that debate must take place. For precisely those who are motivated
to tackle climate change and secure ongoing basic justice, population must be
part of the equation. To assume that population growth among the global poor
can continue to be ignored because of their low per capita emissions is,
effectively, to assume that these emissions will continue to be negligible.
This means either assuming continued severe poverty or that it is possible to
end such poverty, for increasing numbers, without worsening environmental
impact. The former is incompatible with basic global justice. The latter, as I
will come back to, is a gamble with a terrible legacy at stake. There is a real
danger that population growth over the next few generations will make it
impossible to do both basic global and basic intergenerational justice: that
our children’s, grandchildren’s or great-grandchildren’s generation will no
longer even have the option of securing a basically decent human life for all
without undermining the ability of future generations to do the same. Since it
would be morally terrible to sacrifice the basic interests of either current or
future humans, they would face a tragic choice at the collective level.
The
point isn’t simply that current resource use and emissions are unsustainable.
It is that the more people there are the lower the average per capita lifestyle
must be for sustainability. Even if those now living more affluently reduced
their consumption to the average, at some point the sustainable lifestyle would
fall below what is needed for basic justice. For the 2010 population (a ‘mere’
6.9bn) the per capita biocapacity was 1.7 global hectares (gha) (WWF, 2014).
Other things being equal, this would mean a per capita biocapacity of only 1gha
for a population of 11.2bn (predicted for 2100). I make no claim to draw
precisely the line at which a given global per capita footprint is compatible
with a decent human life, but would be willing to hazard that this is dangerous
territory. Countries with 2010 footprints as low as this also tend to rank
‘low’ on the Human Development Index (UN Development Programme, 2014, WWF,
2014).
There
are two related responses to this argument. The first acknowledges the danger
of reaching a point where sustainability and basic justice become impossible
but denies that this justifies any specific population policy.
The argument goes like this: birth rates drop with development, so all we
(collectively) need do is secure global justice by boosting development in LDCs[2]. Of course, development also worsens
climate change, so this must be accompanied by extra efforts on mitigation and
adaptation. Yes, all this is a ‘big ask’ but if we (collectively) can pull it
off, then no anti-natalist policies will be required.
A
more nuanced second response picks up on my reference, above, to ‘other things
being equal’. It argues that I have overlooked the crucial role played by
technological development in achieving sustainability. On this view, even if
global justice fails to stabilise population at a level that could be
sustainably maintained on current resources, any ‘gap’ can – and must – be
plugged by technology. So the case is made for massive upscaling of
technological investment but not for anti-natalist policies (Heyward, 2012).
Both
these arguments have true and important elements. The danger of bequeathing our
grandchildren a tragic choice between their own generation and the next adds
further urgency to the already compelling moral case for urgent, effective
action to challenge global injustice whilst also mitigating and enabling
adaptation to climate change. This requires MDCs, and the global affluent in
general, to make emissions cuts, invest in ‘green’ technology, transfer such
technology to LDCs, and make the further resource transfers needed for basic
global justice. It also requires action by LDC
governments to use those resources to secure basic justice, including gender
justice, for their citizens. So much is morally clear-cut, although (alas) very
far from happening.
Moreover,
some policies are not only morally required for basic justice but will also
impact directly on birth rates. These include provision of family planning and
reproductive health care, basic security for old age, education and empowerment
of women. They are, in fact, exactly what I categorised above as
‘choice-providing’ population policies. In 2015, at least 10 per cent of
married or in-union women globally wanted to avoid or delay childbearing but
were not using contraception. In sub-Saharan Africa, this figure was 24 per
cent (UNDESA, 2015a).
However,
the UN medium projections already factor in considerable family planning
improvements (UNDESA, 2015b). Moreover, the triple challenge – securing basic
global justice and reversing population growth through development, whilst also
reversing our collective negative impact on the environment – would be
extremely demanding even given the political will. Even for 2010 population
levels, countries with a sustainable average per capita footprint tend to score
medium to low on human development and to have birth rates above (sometimes
well above) replacement rate (UNDESA, 2015b, UN Development Programme, 2014).
Thus, even assuming dramatic lifestyle and emissions cuts by the global
affluent, it may not be possible to increase living standards elsewhere sufficiently
to reduce birth rates to below replacement rate by that alone, whilst keeping
the global average footprint sufficiently low to
remain within biocapacity limits.
Equally,
it would be a mistake to assume static technology levels. However, a massive
upscaling of technological development and transfer is already essential
for securing basic global justice without worsening climate change. Technology
is not some ‘magic bullet’ on which we can automatically rely to accommodate
larger and larger populations at the same time. Although 2015 was a record year
for investment in renewables, they still only accounted for 10 per cent of
global electricity generation (excluding large hydro-electric projects) (Frankfurt
School of Finance and Management, 2016). Moreover, technological change is
uncertain by its very nature, it carries heavy infrastructure costs, and the
time required for previous technological revolutions (70 to 100 years) simply
isn’t available now (UNDESA, 2011).
Where,
then, does this leave the argument that current generations should focus on
tackling climate change and global poverty, invest heavily in technology, but
eschew any population-specific policy? Such a policy – although morally many
times better than what we are currently doing – amounts to taking a gamble. The
hope is that this would be enough to avoid bequeathing a tragic choice to one
of the next few generations. However, it is only a hope. There is a clear moral
presumption against such gambles, especially when the severe suffering
associated with losing them would be borne by others. The precautionary
principle dictates, at the very least, not taking them unless there are no less
morally problematic alternatives (Shue, 2010).
There
is a further reason against eschewing all population-specific policies: one
which makes it, again, a morally hard option. It is a widely shared moral view
that institutional arrangements should not impose additional costs on some
people as a result of the free choices of others. If I neglect to repair my
fence and it falls onto my vegetable garden, destroying the crop, that’s my
look out; if my neighbour fells his tree carelessly and it crushes
my vegetables, fairness dictates that he should compensate me. Population
growth will, at the very least, increase the costs of securing basic global and
intergenerational justice. If these costs go up for everyone then those who
have small families are, in effect, landed with additional burdens because
others have had bigger ones. Such fairness considerations make a case for
internalising the environmental and global justice costs of children (or above
replacement rate children) by, as far as possible, assigning them to parents[3]. Such a policy would be likely to overlap
with the ‘harder’ end of the incentive-changing policy spectrum.
However,
this argument has two important caveats. Firstly, it applies on the assumption
that the environmental costs of other lifestyle choices (flights for holidays,
for example, or eating meat) are also internalised as part of a just policy of
climate change mitigation. Otherwise, it could be unfair to pick out the
decision to have many children in this way. Secondly, the reference to a ‘free’
choice, above, is crucial. The case for internalising assumes that the decision
to have a large family is genuinely free and informed. As we have seen, this is
not the case in many parts of the world, especially for women. The point is not
that policies to internalise the environmental and basic justice costs of large
families could be justified globally under anything like current circumstances.
Rather, it is that against a background of basic justice, including genuine choice-provision,
internalisation could avoid one specific kind of institutional unfairness.
Incentive-changing policies and
hard moral choices
We
have seen that, where basic justice is already in place, there are moral
reasons to pay serious attention to incentive-changing policies, including those
which go some way towards internalising the environmental and global justice
costs of large families. Failure to do so would amount to choosing a morally
hard option. Unfortunately, however, such policies also represent
morally tough options. They all have implications against which, other things
being equal, there are significant moral presumptions. Harder
incentive-changing policies – including fully internalising policies – give
rise to greater moral concerns. However, hard moral choices are faced even with
the softer policy options.
This
is because children are usually brought up by their own parents. We generally
regard this as a very good thing. In practice and in political philosophy the
family is treated as a unit important in itself and worthy of protection.
However, this way of doing things makes children’s prospects contingent on the
resources and inclinations of their parents. Thus, any policy designed to
change parents’ incentives by changing their pay-offs runs the risk of
penalising children, or rewarding some relative to others. This is problematic
because if anything in this emotive and perplexing field can be agreed on it
is, I hope, that the children themselves are not to blame. They are entitled to
the same moral consideration however many siblings they have.
At
the extreme, this danger could rule out some incentive-changing policies.
Suppose that the effect of introducing harder incentive-changing policies was
to force a collective-level choice between removing children from otherwise
good parents and making those families so badly off that the basic interests of
the children were threatened. This could happen if parents had large families
despite the policies and were heavily penalised for it. Both options are
morally terrible and this choice would be a tragic one.
Even
assuming this could be avoided – whether by eschewing harder incentive-
changing policies altogether or by developing nuanced versions – a morally
uncomfortable choice would remain. Other things being equal, softer incentive-
changing policies would make children in smaller families better off relative
to those in larger ones. For an institutional scheme to influence children’s
relative resources and opportunities in this way would be unfair. The
unfairness might be mitigated – by providing many goods directly to children –
but only by taking away elements of childcare from parents, and so interfering
within families. Given the moral presumption against either of these outcomes,
states or other collective institutions would face hard moral choices in
introducing soft incentive changing policies. Even educational and campaigning
alternatives run the risk of leaving third or fourth children feeling like
second class citizens.
A
further moral presumption against incentive-changing policies, especially any
negative ones, results from their implications for gender equality. Even if
such policies are introduced only where there is already both choice provision
and basic justice, unless there is full gender equality in terms of pay, parental
leave, and social childcare norms, many negative incentive-changing policies
will have a disproportionately negative effect on mothers. This would apply
particularly to cuts to current benefits such as maternity pay, child benefit,
or childcare tax credits.
This,
then, is the moral predicament. Even given effective, immediate collective
action on climate change and basic global justice, with extensive investment in
‘green’ technology – even if, as basic justice demands, family planning,
reproductive health and other choice-providing policies are an integral part of
this – morally hard choices on population would remain. Incentive-changing
procreative policies force (at best) a choice between unfairly rendering some
children better off than others and interfering with the family. Not introducing
such policies means accepting institutional unfairness across adults. It also
means taking a gamble which, if it comes up tails, will leave our children or
grandchildren facing a tragic choice between their own generation and the next.
Population and the ‘right’ to
decide family size
Before
closing, one objection must be anticipated: that this paper has ignored an
absolute moral right to determine family size which would overrule even
incentive-changing anti-natalist policies. My response is as follows. It is
true that a right to ‘decide freely and responsibly the number and spacing of
[one’s] children’ was upheld at the 1994 Cairo International Conference on
Population and Development (United Nations, 1994). However, the moral
philosophical case for an absolute, unlimited right to have as many children as one
chooses is not compelling (Conly, 2015, Kates, 2004, Overall, 2012, Robeyns,
Unpublished).
Parenting
is an extraordinarily rewarding activity and a central part of a full life for
many of us. This interest is so fundamental that it is plausible that the
opportunity to be a parent should be protected by basic justice or, to put it
another way, that this is a human right. However, it is not clear that this
extends to a right to have many children of sufficient force to override all
costs to others. Why should the aim of having a large family, important as it
is to some, be treated differently from other aims and ambitions? Why should
this goal be ring-fenced in a way that (say) the goal of climbing the world’s
highest mountains should not? Most accounts of justice accept that some of the
costs of such ambitions should be borne by the individuals concerned. It is
also accepted that it can be legitimate to limit the extent to which
individuals can pursue their own ambitions if this is necessary to protect the
basic rights of others (at least so long as individuals retain some scope
to follow their own plan of life). Incentive-changing policies are thus not automatically
ruled out, so long as they apply after one child.
However,
context is everything. There are decisive human rights objections to many of
the means that might – and have – been used to sway procreative
decision-making. As indicated earlier in this paper, there are circumstances
under which almost any incentive-changing policies are effectively coercive
either for both potential parents or for mothers. An example of the former
would be financial incentives for the extremely poor; the latter can too easily
result given unequal power relations within the family. Misinformation or lack
of information also undermines the idea of a genuine, free informed choice.
Feminists rightly cite the frightening example of effectively coercive policies
in in India or south America (Nair et al., 2004). Such cases reinforce the
crucial importance of choice-provision and basic justice, including education
and empowerment of women, as a prerequisite for the morally permissible
introduction of incentive- changing policies.
To
conclude, this paper has argued that questions of population, climate justice
and global justice are morally inseparable. It has pointed out that
considerations of population lend further urgency to some existing duties of
global justice: duties to act immediately and effectively to tackle both global
poverty and climate change. It has stressed that choice-providing population
policies must be part of that. Finally, it has pointed out that hard moral
choices would remain even were we collectively to
fulfil these morally clear-cut duties.
I
have not attempted to make these hard choices. For my part, I think a case can
be made for adopting some incentive-changing procreative policies, where
choice-provision is already established, rather than gamble on development and
yet-to-be-developed technology to spare our immediate descendants a tragic
choice. Morally uncomfortable though they are, trade-offs between maintaining
equal opportunities for children and fully respecting the integrity of the
family are already accepted in other contexts. However, I have not defended
this view. Indeed, given how depressingly far the global affluent are even from
doing what is morally clear cut, it is all too probable
that the situation will be still starker – and the choices will have become
truly tragic – before we face up to it.
Notes
[1] The most morally outrageous conclusion –
now fortunately widely discredited – is the ‘lifeboat ethics’ view that it
would be justifiable to cut off aid to the global poor to put an end to this
growth (Hardin, 1974). A more recent argument turns the fact that developed
states are outstripping their resources into an environmental case for curbing
immigration (Cafaro and Staples, 2009). I also find this morally problematic
but will not address it in this paper.
[2] For a fuller discussion of the population-scepticism discourse, driven by demographic
transition theory, see Coole (2013).
[3] This is at odds with the view that
children are a public good at the national level, a claim used to offer a moral
defence of policies which externalise the costs of child-rearing. The idea is
that parents deserve extra support for producing the next generation which will
pay our pensions, provide public services, and care for us in old age. I will make
only two quick points on this. Firstly, it is perfectly possible that children
could be a public good nationally, at least in the short term, and a ‘public
bad’ globally (Casal, 1999). Secondly, there is difference between having some
children – at the collective level, bringing a next generation into being at all – and
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