Vol. 4 No. 2 (2020)
Peer Reviewed Articles

Anticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on Dhaka city

PDF HTML
  • Ripan Debnath
Ripan Debnath
North South University
Bio
This image of the cover of this issue of The Journal of Population and Sustainability has the title in block letters on a grey-green background.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2020.4.2.45

Published 2020-06-01

Keywords

  • urbanization,
  • land cover,
  • climate change,
  • time series model,
  • Dhaka city

How to Cite

Debnath, Ripan. 2020. “Anticipating Urbanization-Led Land Cover Change and Its Impact on Local Climate Using Time Series Model: A Study on Dhaka City”. The Journal of Population and Sustainability 4 (2):45–66. https://doi.org/10.3197/jps.2020.4.2.45.

Copyright (c) 2020 Ripan Debnath

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC

Abstract

Urbanization-led changes in natural landscape often result in environmental degradation and subsequently contribute to local climate variability. Therefore, apart from global climate change, Dhaka city’s ongoing rapid urban growth may result in altering future local climate patterns significantly. This study explores transition relationships between urbanization (population), land cover, and climate (temperature) of Dhaka city beginning in 1975 through to forecast scenarios up to 2035. Satellite image, geographic, demographic, and climatic data were analyzed. Change in core urban land cover (area) was regarded as a function of population growth and was modeled using linear regression technique. The study developed and validated a time series (ARIMA) model for predicting mean maximum temperature change where (forecasted) land cover scenarios were regressors. Throughout the studied period, the city exhibited an increasing urbanization trend that indicated persistent growth of core urban land cover in future. As a result, the city’s mean maximum temperature was found likely to increase by around 1.5-degree Celsius during 2016–2035 on average from that of observed 1996–2015 period. It is expected that findings of this study may help in recognizing urbanization-led climate change easily, which is crucial to effective climate change management actions and urban planning.

PDF HTML

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

  1. Afrifa-Yamoah, E., 2015. Application of arima models in forecasting monthly average surface temperature of Brong Ahafo region of Ghana. International Journal of Statistics and Applications, 5(5), pp. 237–246.
  2. Ahmed, B. & Ahmed, R., 2012. Modeling urban land cover growth dynamics using multi temporal satellite images: a case study of Dhaka, Bangladesh. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 1(1), pp. 3–31.
  3. Ahmed, B. et al., 2013. Simulating land cover changes and their impacts on land surface temperature in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Remote Sensing, Volume 5, pp. 5969–5998.
  4. Ahmed, S. & Bramley, G., 2015. How will Dhaka grow spatially in future?- modelling its urban growth with a near-future planning scenario perspective. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment, 4(2), pp. 359–377.
  5. Alam, M. & Rabbani, M. G., 2007. Vulnerabilities and responses to climate change for Dhaka. Environment and Urbanization, 19(1), p. 81–97.
  6. Aulakh, R., 2013. Climate change forcing thousands in Bangladesh into slums of Dhaka. [Online] Available at: http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2013/02/16/climate_change_forcing_thousands_in_bangladesh_into_slums_of_dhaka.html [Accessed 14 May 2014].
  7. Bairoch, P. & Goertz, G., 1986. Factors of urbanisation in the nineteenth century developed countries: a descriptive and econometric analysis. Urban Studies, Volume 23, pp. 285–305.
  8. BBS, 1981. Community tables of dhaka district, Gazipur District and Narayanganj District, Dhaka: Ministry of Planning.
  9. BBS, 1991. Community series – Dhaka Zilla, Gazipur Zilla and Narayanganj Zilla, Dhaka: Ministry of Planning.
  10. BBS, 2001. Community series – Dhaka Zilla, Gazipur Zilla and Narayanganj Zilla, Dhaka: Ministry of Planning.
  11. BBS, 2012. Community report – Dhaka Zila, Gazipur Zilla and Narayanganj Zilla, Dhaka: Ministry of Planning.
  12. Biswas, S. K., Mahtab, S. B. & Rahman, M. M., 2010. Integrated water resources management options for Dhaka City. Proceedings of International Conference on Environmental Aspects of Bangladesh (ICEAB10), Japan, Sept. 2010 Kitakyushu, Japan, pp. 179–181.
  13. BMD, 2017. Bangladesh climate data portal. [Online] Available at: http://bmd.wowspace.org/team/homex.php. [Accessed 12 April 2017].
  14. Bolund, P. & Hunhammar, S., 1999. Ecosystem services in urban areas. Ecological Economics, Volume 29, pp. 293–301.
  15. Climate Future Group, 2006. Causes of climate change. [Online] Available at: www.climatefuture.org/menu/climate/causes/index.htm. [Accessed 25 October 2019].
  16. Coffey, R., 2013. The difference between “land use” and “land cover”. [Online] Available at: http://msue.anr.msu.edu/news/the_difference_between_land_use_and_land_cover. [Accessed 5 November 2013].
  17. Corrigan, M. B. et al., 2004. Ten principles for smart growth on the suburban fringe, Washington, D.C.: ULI–the Urban Land Institute.
  18. Coskun, H. G., Alganci, U. & Usta, G., 2008. Analysis of land use change and urbanization in the Kucukcekmece Water Basin (Istanbul, Turkey) with temporal satellite data using remote sensing and GIS. Sensors, Volume 8, pp. 7213–7223.
  19. Dale, V. H., 1997. The relationship between land-use change and climate change. Ecological Applications, 7(3), pp. 753–769.
  20. Davis, M., 2006. Planet of slums. London: Verso.
  21. Dewan, A. M. & Yamaguchi, Y., 2009a. Land use and land cover change in Greater Dhaka, Bangladesh: using remote sensing to promote sustainable urbanization. Applied Geography, 29(3), pp. 390–401.
  22. Dewan, A. M. & Yamaguchi, Y., 2009b. Using remote sensing and GIS to detect and monitor land use and land cover change in Dhaka Metropolitan of Bangladesh during 1960–2005. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, Volume 150, pp. 237–249.
  23. FHWA, 2001. Population forecasting methods: a report on forecasting and estimating methods, Washington, DC: Urban Planning Division, Bureau of Public Roads.
  24. George, M. V., Smith, S. K., Swanson, D. A. & Tayman, J., 2004. Population projections. In: J. S. Siegel & D. A. Swanson, eds. The methods and materials of demography. 2nd ed. San Diego: Elsevier Academic Press, pp. 561–602.
  25. Gregorio, A. D. & Jansen, L. J., 2005. Land cover classification system – classification concepts and user manual. 2nd ed. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
  26. Grimmond, S., 2007. Urbanization and global environmental change: local effects of urban warming. The Geographical Journal, 173(1), pp. 83–88.
  27. Hong Kong Observatory, 2012. Urbanization effect. [Online] Available at: http://www.hko.gov.hk/climate_change/urbanization_e.htm. [Accessed 22 April 2013].
  28. Hossain, S., 2008. Rapid urban growth and poverty in dhaka city. Bangladesh e-Journal of Sociology, 5(1), pp. 1-24. [pdf] Available at: http://www.bangladeshsociology.org/BEJS%205.1%20Rapid%20Urban%20Growth%20and%20Poverty%20final.pdf?q=dhaka [Accessed 1 March 2020].
  29. IPCC, 2014. Climate change 2014: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC.
  30. Iqbal, A. & Khan, M. H., 2005. Tall buildings in the urban context of Dhaka City. New York: Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat, pp. 3–11.
  31. Islam, N., 1999. Urbanization, migration and development in Bangladesh: recent trends and emerging issues, Dhaka: Centre for Policy Dialogue.
  32. Khan, S., 2012. Arresting decline of a worst livable city. [Online] Available at: http://www.thefinancialexpress-bd.com/more.php?date=2012-08-23&news_id=140750 [Accessed 2 November 2013].
  33. Khoury, N. F., 1982. Interrelationship between urbanization and socio -economic changes in Syria, Beirut: population and labour policies. Regional Programme for the Middle East.
  34. Long, H., Heilig, G. K., Li, X. & Zhang, M., 2007. Socio-economic development and land-use change: analysis of rural housing land transition in the transect of the Yangtse River, China. Land Use Policy, 24(1) pp. 141–153.
  35. Malaque, R. I. & Yokohari, M., 2007. Urbanization process and the changing agricultural landscape pattern in the urban fringe of Metro Manila, Philippines. Environment and Urbanization, 19(1), pp. 191–206.
  36. Meyer, W. B. & Turner, B. L., 1992. Human population growth and global land-use/ cover change. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, Volume 23, pp. 39–61.
  37. Mowla, Q. A. & Islam, M. S., 2013. Natural drainage system and water logging in Dhaka: measures to address the problems. Journal of Bangladesh Institute of Planners, Volume 6, pp. 23–33.
  38. Naab, F. Z. & Dogkubong, R., 2013. Urbanisation and its impact on agricultural lands in growing cities in developing countries: a case study of Tamale in Ghana. Modern Social Science Journal, 2(2), pp. 256–287.
  39. Parvin, M., 2013. Projecting the population size of Dhaka city with migration using growth rate method. IOSR Journal of Mathematics, 8(5), pp. 29–37.
  40. Pielke, R. A., 2005. Land use and climate change. Science, 310(5754), pp. 1625–1626.
  41. Piwowar, J. M. & Ledrew, E. F., 2002. ARMA time series modelling of remote sensing imagery: a new approach for climate change studies. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 23(24), pp. 5225–5248.
  42. Prasad, N. et al., 2009. Climate resilient cities, a primer on reducing vulnerabilities to disasters. Washington, DC: The World Bank.
  43. Rahman, G., Alam, D. & Islam, S., 2008. City growth with urban sprawl and problems of management. Dalian: International Society of City and Regional Planners (ISOCARP), pp. 1–11.
  44. Rahman, H. Z. ed., 2012. Bangladesh urban dynamics. Dhaka: Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC).
  45. RAJUK, 1995. Dhaka metropolitan development plan (1995-2015) volume – ii: urban area plan (1995–2005), Dhaka: Dhaka Metropolitan Development Planning (DMDP).
  46. RAJUK, 2010. Preparation of detailed area plan (dap) for Dhaka metropolitan development plan (dmdp) area, Dhaka: Bangeladesh Govenment Press.
  47. RAJUK, 2011. Detailed area plan – DAP. [Online] Available at: http://www.rajukdhaka.gov.bd/rajuk/dapHome [Accessed 12 May 2013].
  48. RAJUK, 2015. Dhaka structure plan 2016-2035 (final draft), Dhaka: Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha (RAJUK).
  49. Reis, S., 2008. Analyzing land use/land cover changes using remote sensing and GIS in Rize, North-East Turkey. Sensors, Volume 8, pp. 6188–6202.
  50. Romilly, P., 2005. Time series modeling of global mean temperature for managerial decision-making. Journal of Environmental Management, 76(1), pp. 61–70.
  51. Stojanov, R., 2005. Environmental refugees between development and poverty – case study of the Three Gorges Dam area. Bonn, European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), pp. 1–19.
  52. The World Bank, 2012. Historical assessment of spatial growth of the metropolitan areas of Delhi, Mumbai and Dhaka. [online] Available at: http://go.worldbank.org/5A2EGEFL90 [Accessed 6 April 2013].
  53. Thomas, S., 2008. Urbanization as a driver of change. The Arup Journal, 43(1), pp. 58–67.
  54. Thompson, J. R., Foster, D. R., Scheller, R. & Kittredge, D., 2011. The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA. Ecological Applications, 21(7), pp. 2425–2444.
  55. UN DESA, 2019. World urbanization prospects 2018: highlights (ST/ESA/ SER.A/421) , New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations.
  56. UNFCCC, 2018. Global sea level rise is accelerating – study. [Online] Available at: https://unfccc.int/news/global-sea-level-rise-is-accelerating-study [Accessed 15 October 2019].
  57. UN-HABITAT, 2008. State of the world’s cities 2008/2009, case study: Dhaka’s extreme vulnerability to climate change, Nairobi: United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT).
  58. United Nations, n.d. Climate change. [Online] Available at: https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/climate-change/ [Accessed 25 October 2019].
  59. UNU-IHDP, 2015. Coastal zones and urbanization: summary for decision-makers. Bonn: International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (UNU-IHDP).
  60. USGS, n.d. EarthExplorer. [Online] Available at: https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/ [Accessed 3 June 2019].
  61. WHO, 2000. Issue paper on: urban environment management in Asia and the Pacific, Hangzhou, Peoples Republic of China: Regional Office for Western Pacific of the World Health Organization (WHO).
  62. World Bank, 2011. Historical assessment of spatial growth of the metropolitan areas of Delhi, Mumbai and Dhaka. [Online] Available at: http://go.worldbank.org/5A2EGEFL90 [Accessed 6 April 2013].
  63. World Bank, 2013. Data: Bangladesh. [Online] Available at: http://data.worldbank.org/country/bangladesh [Accessed 7 March 2013].
  64. World Bank, 2018. World Bank staff estimates based on the United Nations Population Division’s world urbanization prospects: 2018 revision. [Online] Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/ [Accessed 28 February 2019].
  65. Xinhua, 2013. Dhaka suffers from over population. [Online] Available at: http://www.clickittefaq.com/in-the-news/dhaka-suffers-from-over-population/ [Accessed 22 October 2013].
  66. Ye, L., Yang, G., Ranst, E. V. & Tang, H., 2013. Time-series modeling and prediction of global monthly absolute temperature for environmental decision making. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 30(2), pp. 382–396.